Monthly Archives: April 2011

No-score draw for sure

Now that there are almost 7,500 EPL games completed there is a fair amount of data available
for when goals are scored and the final outcome

A first analysis provides the probability (based on this past data) at any point in a goalless game that it will result in a No Scorer

A pretty smooth line with an intial probability of just over 10%. The jump at the end is predominantly due to the fact that extra time played is all lumped into the 90th minute. Once a game has passed about the 65 minute mark a goalless game is more than likely

Chernoff – New Russian Striker?

Actually, Herman Chernoff is an American mathematics professor who invented Chernoff faces, a way to display data in the form of a human face. It is one way to visually compare and contrast different variables – in this case the differences between the leading all-time Premier League goalscorers.

Chernoff Faces

All time leading EPL goal scorers

So for instance, large eyes indicate penalties , lots of hair – headers, smiles lots of assists etc.

Fowler’s head shape differs from others because he scored so many goals with left foot

Let me know who you think looks most alike

An unbeatable record?

Following on from the discussion of Torres current and continuing goal drought, I have no made available sequences of games in which a player has scored.

Here the undoubted star is Ruud van Nistelrooy. When he entered the league in 2001 after a decade of the Premiership’s existence the best run was seven consecutive games first set by Mark Stein in the winter of 1993/4. van Nistelrooy bettered that with an 8 game run in his first season – a figure that still stands as the second best all time  -  and then reached double digits by scoring in the final eight matches at the end of  2002/3 and striking in the first two games of the following season

It helped that he was the penalty taker as in three of the games he relied on spot kicks to register a goal. The closest to an early finish to the run was averted by a last minute goal against Spurs in the sixth game of the sequence
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An interesting sidelight on Stein’s performance was that he did not rely on any penalties to compile the streak and the fact that he scored 13 of his 21 career Premiership goals in his final 11 appearances of the 1993/4 season

PFA Nominees

Interesting selection this year with no stand-out candidate – unless Bale scores a hat-tick against Real Madrid later today
No joy for the leagues leading scorer, Berbatov, assister, Nani, or points leader, Drogba!

Here are the nominees basic stats

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Adam and Parker would have strong cases if they keep their team in the Premiership but for some strange reason the award is given before the climax of the season. Bizarre
Bale will rely on his European exploits and his talked up transfer fee. This is a player who in 76 premier league appearances for Spurs has been on the winning side just 23 times
Nasri is just a ridiculous choice. With 12 points (9 goals 3! assists) he only places joint fifth on the Arsenal team. By all accounts, Vidic has been a rock for Man U but defenders rarely get picked (Terry and McGrath since the Premier League started); Man U have had winners the past four years; United are giving up a goal a game – a figure they have bettered in all but three Premiership seasons
So that leaves Tevez who would be a worthy winner. He actually did save a team from relegation once and leads the league by being involved in 54% of City’s goals this campaign. Without him, it is hard to see how the team would be favourites for a, crucial, top 4 place

The stats for the young Player are below.

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Logically it has to be Bale or Nasri, presumably the former. If the Welshman wins the main award they may decide to go with Nani or Wilshere